Case Study

Singapore Centre for Strategic Futures and the Scenario Planning Plus (SP+) Toolkit

Scenario Planning Plus (SP+) Toolkit

The Singapore Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF) is a pioneering organisation within the Singaporean government dedicated to future-proofing the nation through strategic foresight and anticipatory governance. With rapid technological advancements, shifting geopolitical landscapes, and evolving socio-economic dynamics, the CSF recognises the critical need for robust planning mechanisms that can navigate uncertainty and complexity. To address these challenges, the CSF has developed the Scenario Planning Plus (SP+) toolkit.

The SP+ toolkit is a strategic planning framework designed to enhance traditional scenario planning methods. It integrates quantitative and qualitative approaches to create comprehensive and adaptable scenarios. Key components of the SP+ toolkit include:

  1. Trend Analysis: Identifying and analysing significant global and local trends across various domains such as technology, economics, politics, and society.

  2. Scenario Development: Crafting detailed, plausible future scenarios based on the identified trends and uncertainties.

  3. Impact Assessment: Evaluating the potential impacts of different scenarios on national policies and strategies.

  4. Strategy Formulation: Developing robust strategies and policy responses that are resilient across multiple future scenarios.

  5. Stakeholder Engagement: Involving a wide range of stakeholders from across government, the private sector, academia, and civil society to ensure the incorporation of diverse perspectives and comprehensive insights.

The toolkit in practice

The CSF has successfully implemented the SP+ toolkit across several strategic initiatives. By integrating advanced scenario planning techniques with strategic foresight, the CSF has strengthened Singapore's capacity to navigate uncertainty and shape more resilient futures.

  • In 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, the CSF applied the Scenario Planning Plus toolkit to explore possible disruptions to the nation's food supply. Given Singapore's heavy reliance on imported food, the foresight exercise involved mapping out various long-term risks to food security, including potential disruptions to global supply chains, climate change, and technology. SP+ tools like backcasting were used to identify steps that could be taken in the present to mitigate these risks, such as diversifying food sources, investing in local urban farming, and creating strategic food reserves. This planning informed policies that helped Singapore enhance its resilience in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, when global supply chains were indeed disrupted​.

  • Singapore also used SP+ to explore the implications of global resource shocks, such as water or energy shortages, driven by factors like climate change, geopolitical tensions, and technological disruptions. The government leveraged environmental scanning and wild card analysis to assess unlikely but high-impact events that could destabilise Singapore's resource security. This foresight exercise led to initiatives like Singapore’s investment in desalination technology and high-grade reclaimed water infrastructure to ensure sustainable water resources.

  • The SP+ toolkit was utilised to address emerging threats in cybersecurity and cyber-terrorism, which have become increasingly significant with Singapore’s drive towards a digital economy. Scenario planning workshops involved stakeholders from government, private sector, and academia to assess possible future cyber-attacks and their consequences. Using SP+ tools like scenario simulation, participants explored the impact of large-scale cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure and how they could be prevented or mitigated. This led to stronger national cybersecurity frameworks, public awareness campaigns, and the implementation of measures to safeguard Singapore’s digital infrastructure​.

References: 

Singapore Centre for Strategic Futures (website), https://www.csf.gov.sg/

Singapore Centre for Strategic Futures, Conversations for the Future (Series), https://www.csf.gov.sg/media-centre/publications/convo-for-future/